Housing Supply Remains Tight Predictions for Next Quarter

Hello and welcome to the real estate update. My name is Dan Korman, broker owner of Alpenglow properties right here in Durango, Colorado. This month, we’ll be looking at the first quarter real estate statistics in Durango and La Plata County as a whole. While assessing our current climate, I’ll also make some bold predictions about what might come into fruition this summer and beyond. So let’s get into it. News you’ve probably heard a thousand times. Durango is looking at a devastatingly low inventory. Here’s a visual representation of the active listing inventory showing a 72% decline in the supply for the year to date period ending March 31st. See where it says 24 in the 2021 section? Well, it’s actually 15 homes as of the taping of this video. An uncomfortably low amount of homes for continually high amount of demand. What’s painfully obvious in this picture, is that at the end of Q1 in 2020, Durango had an abundance of active listing inventory and showed a 45% increase in inventory over the first quarter of 2019. That is no longer the case. In this pictograph, you’ll notice that the median price for first quarter home sales for the in-town Durango market increased by over 18% to a median price of just over $570,000. Similarly in this graph depicting the average price for Q1. You’ll notice that the average price for a home in the first quarter is getting quite high at an average price of $645,000. Generally this number would drop when looking at the broader market, but as far as the first quarter is concerned, La Plata County is higher than Durango, and is showing an average home price in Q1 of almost $700,000. Things are going to get interesting and probably in the second half of this year, especially if a large percentage of the one million homes in forbearance turn into foreclosures. But with money flowing and prices soaring, I really don’t foresee Durango getting a bump in inventory from foreclosures like some of the other parts of the country might. By continuing to build in the areas of growth. Such as the Florida corridor, the Edgemont Ranch, highlands, timbers and Meadows areas. Grand View, 160 East twin Buttes, and the 160 West corridors. Builders will relieve pressure one home at a time. Many buyers are opting for land. Which isn’t necessarily going to alleviate pressure of local builders who are already tied up with specs, custom homes and supply chain shortages. I’m hearing most builders right now are one to two years out for new projects. So buying land with the hopes of building this year is not quite the silver bullet that some would hope it’d be. At the end of the first quarter we saw new listings in La Plata County down almost 18%. But that’s still 200 homes added to the MLS in La Plata County this year, so there’s hope. May and June new listing numbers will be tallying. And I’m hoping some of the sellers that thought about listing their home last year, are now ready to move on with their lives as they had originally planned. If we don’t see those sellers surface summer, then the winter could get even weirder for people. As a single ray of statistical sunshine seen here in December of 2020, more new listings were listed than any other December since 2009. So if that’s a sign of things to come, maybe there’s hope. But I’m not counting those chickens yet as March new listings are down over 30% over last year. So come on May, right? It’s been a pleasure. Sharing this first quarter statistics with you. And this month’s Durango real estate update. If you have questions about the market, or would like to add your much needed home to our exhausted inventory. Please feel free to email me at [email protected], or you can find us on any of the social media sites on our handle @DurangoBrokers. Have a beautiful spring, be safe and be kind to each other. Thank you.

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